Why are we focused on select counties?

The 2026 Election Risk Heat Map focuses on the places where election risks are most likely to emerge — where close, competitive races intersect with vulnerabilities in election law and bad actors willing to test democratic norms.

In large parts of the country, elections are less competitive, with margins wide enough that disputes are unlikely to gain traction. That’s why so much of the map appears grey. 

Our tool highlights where small shifts or disruptions could have outsized consequences, focusing on areas where risk factors overlap.

One reason competitive races are so geographically limited is the widespread use of partisan gerrymandering in both red and blue states. Over the past few years, district lines have been drawn to favor one party or the other, reducing the number of truly competitive contests. The result is a political landscape where many districts are “safe,” and only a smaller set of areas remain closely contested. 

Those areas where control can realistically change hands are also where incentives to challenge, delay, or undermine election outcomes are strongest, making them the primary focus of this map.

That being said, we are committed to this tool being an accurate reflection of the threat landscape across the country and are regularly updating the map’s coverage. If there is a jurisdiction you are tracking that is not highlighted, please let us know by contacting us at heatmap@votingrightslab.org.