In the aftermath of the contentious 2020 election, a number of states passed sweeping election reforms. Some changes aimed to streamline processes, while others imposed new burdens on voters. In particular, many of these reforms focused on mail voting, voter ID requirements, and the maintenance of voter registration lists. The 2024 election offers the first comprehensive look at how these reforms impact voter behavior and election administration.
While it’s still too early to draw definitive conclusions, early data from 2024 shows marked shifts in voter behavior that could shape future elections.
Voters Cast Fewer Mail Ballots
One of the most noticeable trends this year was the sharp decline in mail-in voting, particularly in states that enacted significant barriers to absentee ballots. These declines may also be influenced by other factors, such as the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic and the increased availability of in-person early voting options.
Georgia, for example, passed S.B. 202 in 2021, which introduced new voter ID requirements for absentee ballot applications and return envelopes, among other provisions. As a result, mail-in voting plummeted. In 2020, over 1.3 million mail ballots were cast in Georgia – making up 26% of all ballots. In 2024, that number plummeted to 286,000 ballots, or just 5% of the total votes cast.
Similarly, Florida – a state known for its high rate of mail voting – saw a drop in absentee ballots after the passage of S.B. 90, which introduced stricter ID requirements and reduced the number of drop-off locations. In 2020, Florida had over 4.8 million mail ballots (44% of total ballots). In 2024, that number fell to just over 3 million (28%). Texas, where absentee voting laws were tightened under S.B. 1 in 2021, also saw a dramatic decrease. In 2020, nearly 1 million mail ballots were cast in Texas (9% of total ballots) compared to roughly 342,000 (3%) in 2024.
Provisional Ballots Increase
Another trend emerging from the 2024 election was a rise in provisional ballots, particularly in states that implemented stricter voter ID laws or withdrew from the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), which helps states maintain accurate voter rolls. These changes can make it harder for some voters to cast their ballot without follow-up verification, leading to more ballots being flagged for review and discouraging some voters from casting their ballot altogether.
In North Carolina, for example, the implementation of a voter ID law led to a sharp increase in provisional ballots. In 2020, North Carolina saw 40,766 provisional ballots cast. In 2024, that number surged to 64,388, a 58% increase. Voter turnout dipped slightly, from 75% in 2020 to 73% in 2024.
Voter turnout also dropped in Ohio, from 74% of registered voters in 2020 to around 70% in 2024. This drop may be linked to the challenges voters faced navigating new voter ID requirements as well as the state’s exit from ERIC.
Pre-Processing Leads to Faster Results
Not all election reforms had negative consequences for voters. Michigan provides a clear example of how crucial reforms can streamline the process and instill greater confidence in our elections. In 2022, Michigan voters approved Prop 2, which allowed for significant changes in how the state processes ballots, including allowing for ballot pre-processing before Election Day.
The state fully implemented these changes this year, resulting in faster reporting of election results. While the margin in Michigan’s presidential race was much closer in 2024 (70,000 voters) compared to 2020 (155,000), the ability to pre-process ballots helped maintain public confidence in the accuracy of the results.
This critical reform helped Michigan avoid the delays and confusion seen in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the failure to pass pre-processing reforms led to slower reporting.
Looking Ahead: Building Trust in Our Elections
Election reforms are reshaping how Americans vote, but the full impact of these changes is still unfolding. In addition, correlation does not imply causation; the decline in mail voting, the rise in provisional ballots, and the shifts in turnout and delivery of results are influenced by many factors beyond legislative changes, including shifting voter preferences and the lingering effects of the pandemic.
As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, lawmakers must carefully consider how these changes might affect voter access, turnout, and overall confidence in our democratic process.