Report: How Swing States Changed Voting Rules for 2024

Mail Voting, Election Administration, & More Could Tip Outcome of Tight Presidential Contest

Many voters and election officials in eight key swing states will see a different set of rules governing the 2024 presidential election than just four years prior. New changes to mail voting, election administration, voter challenges, voter ID, and certification procedures – in addition to new challenges surrounding the departure of election officials and election denialism – could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, according to a new report from Voting Rights Lab.

The report, Battleground 2024: How Swing States Changed Voting Rules After the 2020 Election, details how the results of the 2024 presidential election may hinge on the ability of voters and election officials in key swing states to adapt to the – sometimes sweeping – changes enacted since 2020. The report focuses on changes made to election law and the rampant spread of disinformation, election challenges, voter intimidation, and other non-legislative threats that affect elections today – focusing on eight key 2024 swing states determined by Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center on Politics: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Read the New York Times story on today’s report release here.

“Since the 2020 election, lawmakers have rewritten – and in some cases, continue to rewrite – the rules that govern our elections and democracy. For the swing states that will determine the outcome of next year’s presidential election, those changes could ultimately tip the scales,” said Liz Avore, senior policy advisor for Voting Rights Lab and primary author for the report. “Lawmakers and election conspiracy theorists – two groups with increasing and concerning overlap – will undoubtedly make their mark on the 2024 presidential election. The outcome of the 2024 presidential election will come down to how voters and election officials respond. This report shows what they’re up against.”

What to Watch in Each State:

• Arizona: New top election officials in 13 of 15 counties, potential delays in reporting results in a close election, and challenges to election results from extremists. (2020 Result: Biden +0.31%)
  
• Georgia: New vote-by-mail restrictions, meritless mass challenges to voter registrations, and partisan and criminal investigations of election administrators. (2020 Result: Biden +0.24%)
  
• Michigan: Newly expanded access to mail voting and in-person early voting, but also the spread of disinformation and challenges to election results from extremists. (2020 Result: Biden +2.78%)
  
• Nevada: 2020 vote-by-mail expansions made permanent, but also counties considering hand counts or recounts. (2020 Result: Biden +2.39%)
  
• New Hampshire: No mail voting or in-person early voting for most voters due to lapse of temporary 2020 provisions, as well as new restrictions on voters who register on Election Day – which could result in their ballots being rejected. (2020 Result: Biden +7.35%)
  
• North Carolina: A new mail voting ID requirement that’s the strictest in the country, a  new photo ID requirement for in-person voting, increased poll watcher authority, and the potential for rejected mail ballots and provisional ballots cast by eligible voters. (2020 Result: Trump +1.35%)
  
• Pennsylvania: The departure of 50+ top election officials since 2020, decreased mail voting access due to lapse of temporary 2020 provisions, the increased potential for mail ballots cast by eligible voters to be rejected, and potential delays in reporting results in a close election. (2020 Result: Biden +1.16%)
  
• Wisconsin: New bans on drop boxes and third party ballot return – which remain subject to ongoing legal challenges – as well as partisan recounts, litigation, and investigations into the election. (2020 Result: Biden +0.63%)

This report leverages Voting Rights Lab’s State Voting Rights Tracker, the leading resource for tracking and analyzing election legislation across all 50 states since the 2020 presidential election. Click here to receive weekly updates from our Tracker and the team of researchers and policy experts behind this report.

To view our full report online, click here.

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Voting Rights Lab is a nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that brings state policy and legislative expertise to the fight for voting rights. We work in partnership with organizations across the country to secure, protect, and defend the voting rights of all Americans. And we track voting laws and legislation in all 50 states at tracker.votingrightslab.org.

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